The Tsunami

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Tony's 'Poker Math and Theory' Blog Entries

Multistreet Bluff from a WSOP $1500 NLHE Event

Friday, July 15th, 2011
I alluded to this hand on a recent edition of Killer Poker Analysis. It's been awhile since I played this hand, so I'm hoping I get all the details correct. In the worst-case scenario, my memory of the hand is incorrect but I still discuss an interesting line of play. This is a prime example of taking a medium pocket pair and turning it into a bluff when it appears to have little-to-no showdown value...

Know Stack Depths When Playing Live

Friday, June 17th, 2011
Lesson from a hand I played in a recent WSOP single table satellite.

Exploiting Players Who Shove too Wide Preflop

Monday, May 30th, 2011
When action is jam/fold preflop in no-limit hold'em, I'm very cautious about playing exploitatively. With my knowledge of non-exploitable jam/fold play, it's just very difficult for me to justify playing guessing games regarding opponents' preflop ranges. However, I recently played a hand in a live cash game where I called an all-in a tad lighter than the equilibrium calling range...

The Difference Between +cEV and Optimal cEV

Tuesday, May 17th, 2011
When playing poker, your goal shouldnt be merely to profit. Instead, your goal should be to maximize your profits...

Betting Against Draws in No-Limit Hold’em

Monday, March 28th, 2011
Bet-sizing considerations when playing against an opponent who's known to be on a draw

Can Registering Late for Tournaments Maximize Your $/Hour?

Tuesday, March 22nd, 2011
Analysis of when you should late register for tournaments based on whether you're +cEV or -cEV during a tournament's late registration period.

Buy-in Strategy for Full Tilt’s Multientry Tournaments

Sunday, February 6th, 2011
With multientries now available in many Full Tilt tournaments, should you ever take multiple simultaneous entries or be willing to pay for a reentry?

Maximize Your Effectiveness (Poker and Beyond)

Monday, October 18th, 2010
Poker strategy is complicated. Measuring your effectiveness at poker isn't. Your effectiveness as a poker player is defined by one number - which we can conveniently call your poker hourly...

Important Strategic Considerations for Cashout Tournaments at Full Tilt

Friday, October 1st, 2010
The most obvious question to ask about cashout tournaments is: "when (if ever) should I consider cashing out." The answer to this question: NEVER.

Don’t Be Timid in the Big Blind when Facing Late Position Shoves!

Thursday, September 23rd, 2010
Suppose you're in a multitable tournament (MTT), and action is nowhere close to being at the final table (in other words, you're making decisions entirely with respect to maximizing the expected value of your stack). Blinds are T80-T160 with no antes. Action folds to the small blind, who shoves all-in to T1,545. You have 17 hands on the small blind; ...

WPT Raw Deal Casting: Vote for Me!

Sunday, August 8th, 2010
It takes more than temperatures exceeding 110 degrees Fahrenheit to stop me (though I guess keeping my place air conditioned at 82 degrees Fahrenheit softens the blow a bit)! I haven't had time to play poker since the +$813.66 session I had last Wednesday. However, UB has been keeping me busy, I've been making final arrangements for the ...

My Non-Exploitable Shove Cheat Sheets are Now Publicly Available!

Friday, July 30th, 2010
The past week has been extremely eventful. The biggest news of all is that I made my non-exploitable shove cheat sheets available to PokerPwnage members. My non-exploitable shove cheat sheets give approximate non-exploitable jamming ranges (with respect to cEV) for stacks ranging from .5 big blinds to 27 big blinds...both without antes in play and with antes ...

Flop Texture Matters: hotjenny314 and I Throw Down at the MGM!

Tuesday, July 6th, 2010
Saturday 6/26 was a day of nonstop adventure with Team Moshman. The day began with ATVing in the desert. It ended with some $1-$2 no-limit hold'em cash game action at the MGM. Of my 9 opponents at the table, 3 of them were Team Moshman members, but the rest of the table was exploitable enough where I ...

How a True Poker Player Evaluates a Line of Play

Tuesday, June 8th, 2010
The key to effectively evaluating a line of play is to ask the following three questions: Question #1: What's the entire range of hands that I'm taking this line of play with? Question #2: What are the alternative lines in this situation? Question #3: How tough would it be for my opponent to beat me if I were to ...

Improve Your 6-max No-Limit Hold’em Cash Game Empirically: Buy nanonoko’s Hand Histories!

Monday, May 31st, 2010
For those of you who don't know what datamining is, it's the practice of getting hand histories from games you haven't played in. Basically, you go to a website, purchase text hand histories, and then import them into Poker Tracker 3 (PT3) or Hold'em Manager (HEM). To my knowledge, some of the top websites providing mined ...

Game Theory: Rochambeau to Poker (Part 2)

Tuesday, May 11th, 2010
Even an expert can pick up a new trick or two. For the KillerEV faithful who've been wondering what I've been up to for the past two weeks, I was recently in Florida visiting HerschelW from PokerPwnage.com. The focus of the trip was to put together some videos about short-stacked play in multitable tournaments (MTTs) to toss up ...

Game Theory: Rochambeau to Poker (Part 1)

Wednesday, April 7th, 2010
The first time I heard the term, Rochambeau, it was in reference to a one-on-one pain contest between two men. Competitors take turns kicking each other in the balls, and as in all pain contests, the winner is the player who doesn't concede. As much as I love testing my mettle, I've never engaged in such a game of Rochambeau ...

Determining the Conversion Rate of VIP Program Points: The Turbo Takedown at PokerStars

Friday, February 26th, 2010
On last week's edition of Killer Poker Analysis, I covered the following topics: 1.) Open shoving distributions from the small blind in tournament situations when antes are around 12.5% of the big blind 2.) Knowing when to start playing in bigger games 3.) Heads-up play I also announced that I won't be doing a podcast today. I'll miss ...

Poker Tournament Strategy Made Simple

Monday, February 8th, 2010
First off, if you didn't catch Killer Poker Analysis last Friday, I covered the following topics: 1.) The squeeze play in no-limit hold'em 2.) My opinions on Full Tilt's Rush Poker now that player tracking HUDs work with it (I haven't tried it out, but it seems to be word on the streets) 3.) Implied ...

$530 Tournament Ticket for Only $400 at PokerStars!

Thursday, January 28th, 2010
I woke up today to a pleasant surprise: today's discount item in the PokerStars VIP Store is a $530 tournament ticket for 25,000 FPP (at $.016/FPP, that comes out to only $400). I was disappointed a few days ago when the $285 cash bonus didn't have an exchange rate of at least $.016/FPP, but PokerStars made up for it today. ...

4 Custom Statistics for your Poker Tracker 3 Heads-Up Display

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010
Good afternoon! It's been a great start to the day. I got in some "relaxing" Gunstar Heroes action. I got a Wii for Christmas, and one of my favorite things about it is the Virtual Console, which offers hundreds of classic video games. All I can say is that Gunstar Heroes on expert mode is a tough game...they ...

2 Poker Math Questions from Killer Poker by the Numbers

Monday, December 28th, 2009
Today, I received an email with some questions about material in Killer Poker by the Numbers (KPBTN) having to do with probabilities and combinations. I figured I'd answer them here to benefit everybody out there who may have similar questions. Enjoy! QUESTION #1: Where do the numbers in Table 3.5 on p.84 come from? Table 3.4 in KPBTN ...

Interesting No-Limit Hold’em Tourney Spot: MP + FD + Monotone Flop = ?

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009
Evelyn and I are still settling into the new place. I finally unpacked my video games, and I introduced Evelyn to Duck Hunt for the original NES. (Yeah, I still own an original NES...and it still works thanks to the replacement 72-pin connector that I installed a few years ago). We also hosted some friends from CA for two fun-filled ...

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